Movies + Social Media Tweet Rates

Two researchers from HP Labs had a question: could you predict box office revenues for movies based off of the activity in social media? What they found is that their ‘social media analysis model’ was more powerful of a predictor than the Hollywood Stock Exchange.

Their model? Analyzing the tweet rates per movie, and then factoring in positive and negative sentiment with each tweet.

They found that the movie Blind Side made more money the second weekend than it did the opening weekend. The reason? More people talked about the movie that week than in the week leading up to release.

This paper raised a question in my mind: If social media can be used to predict box office revenues, can studios influence social media to increase revenues?

Here is my hypothesis for how movies can make more money based off of social media activity: increase the rate at which people talk about your movie.

Here’s how I would go about increases the ‘tweet rate.’

1) I would employ a team of community managers whose sole purpose is to increase the ‘tweet rate.’ They can do this in the following ways:

a) Engage people who are talking about the movie by having a conversation. The community manager can find these people through searches on both Twitter and Facebook.
b) Share inside information on social media pages throughout the movie making process with the goal of increasing chatter and branding the movie with the consumer.
c) Run promotions to increase the rate at which people share personal information

Start early in the process because it takes time to develop a community around a movie, and it takes time to build an audience.

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